So there we are then. The dust is starting to settle after Albertans delivered a (moderately) resounding no to the possibility of leaving Canada. At least for now.
But the separatist question hasn’t gone away. It may be a long time before it does. At the time of writing it looks like somewhere around 500,000 people voted to hold a second binding referendum on leaving Canada. That may only be about 25 percent of those who voted, but it is undeniably a significant number, and it’s one that is too big to ignore.
So what happens next?
Over the course of the campaign you probably saw signs saying “Quebec got to vote, why can’t we?” Well, the obvious reason for that is that Quebec has repeatedly elected a provincial government which advocates for separatism, so advancing the idea of independence is entirely within their mandate.
There are a couple of parties in Alberta that take a similar stance in favour of leaving Canada, but at the last election they fell far short of electing a single MLA, let alone forming the government. However there’s a “but” here, and it’s quite a big one. Polls conducted in the run up to the referendum suggest that a significant portion of the membership of the United Conservative Party are either in favour of separatism or are at least open to the idea.
What does that mean? Do those people leave and form another party with a clear aim of promoting separatism? Do they stay and try to steer the UCP away from its support for federalism? Following either one of those courses could have profound repercussions, up to and including a potential split of the “small c” conservative vote at the next provincial election clearing the way for the New Democrats to take power, which would be a great example of the law of unintended consequences.
The big question that comes out of this is exactly how united is the United Conservative Party? We’ll find out in the coming months.
One thing that was noteworthy about the referendum campaign was that there was no single group leading the separatist cause. Put all of those organizations together into a single entity and anything could happen. If they were able to hold on to the 25 percent of the electorate who support separatism, it would easily be enough to form the official opposition, and after that, who knows?
But perhaps I’m getting ahead of myself, because there are differing strands within the separatist movement that may prove mutually incompatible.
There’s a particular complication regarding our relationship with our neighbours to the south. Along with the independence signs, there has been more than a smattering of American flags. So, are we talking about a new country of our own or becoming a small portion of something much bigger? Those are two quite different options.
The next provincial election is scheduled for October 18 of 2027. A lot can happen between now and then. But one way or another, these next 12 months could make for interesting times.
