Here we go then. In October we’ll be heading to the polls to vote on the future of this province with respect to its role in Canada.
Sort of.
This is not a referendum on whether Alberta should leave Canada. This is a referendum on whether Alberta should have a different, separate referendum on whether Alberta should leave Canada at some indefinite point in the future.
Hmmm.
If Premier Danielle Smith called the vote in order to take the wind from the sails of separatists within her own party, there’s an obvious and not terribly promising comparison in recent history.
That obvious comparison is with the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union. Prime Minister David Cameron decided to call a referendum on the issue in order to quiet a noisy section of his party. Cameron campaigned to stay in the EU, as did both the major opposition parties. What could possibly go wrong? Just about everything. The vote was lost. Cameron had to quit. And then: turmoil. The aftermath was reminiscent of that scene from the Simpsons where Sideshow Bob repeatedly steps on a series of rakes, each one of which hits him squarely in the face. It’s hilarious when it happens to someone else, but if it’s your face getting the rake handle treatment, you might not like it so much.
Since then the UK has stumbled along in a manner that makes headless chickens look like they’ve really got it together. And they’ve gone through a series of prime ministers none of whom have done much to impress. That list includes, at the absolute lowest point, a woman by the name of Liz Truss who did a pretty good job of tanking the economy in spite of only being in charge for about 20 minutes.
So not great then.
But enough of laughing at other people’s misfortunes. What does this all mean for Alberta, or for Canada, or for both?
What the Brexit experience teaches us that seismic events have repercussion upon repression upon repercussion.
If the separatist side loses the vote they are unlikely to just go away. Two lost referendums in the the late 20th Century did little to dampen the enthusiasm of the Parti Quebecois. Quebec and Alberta are very different places but there’s no reason to believe that the outcome of a defeat here will be any different than it was for our friends to the east. A loss would see the separatist side withdraw and regroup before attempting to start the whole process again using what they’ve learned the first time around as a spring board.
And if the separatist side wins and we vote to have that second referendum then, well, all bets are off.
In the meantime we have several months of uncertainty that will only serve to weaken Canada’s hand in negotiations with the United States, or anyone else for that matter. Meanwhile here in Alberta we can expect increasingly shrill rhetoric and mounting conflict between now and October, culminating in a vote that, either way, is going to leave some people extremely unhappy.
Doesn’t sound great, does it?
